A Snow Ball’s Chance in Hell

In my last post, I shared with my readers some soon-to-be-released research on the FDIC and its upcoming challenges. If you haven’t read it, you should.

In tonight’s reading I came across another significant fact worth sharing: According to the New York Times account, ” Fannie (Mae) and Freddie (Mac) now buy or guarantee almost two-thirds of all new mortgages. The Federal Housing Administration guarantees another 25 percent.”

Put another way, the Gov’t is financing 9 out of 10 new mortgages in the United States.

Hmmmm…….

With the S&P500 over 55% off its lows, one could say that the stock market has priced in a V-shaped economic recovery. Damn the torpedoes, baby!

But wait! How could this be? Is the recession really over?

Not so fast, partner!!

  1. We’ve got banks going broke, with more to come, and no money to lend in the meantime.
  2. The only reason that houses are selling at all is because the Gov’t is lending the money, plus giving 1st time buyers a free $8,000 for buying a house. (how else could houses sell with unemployment as high as it is?)
  3. And heck, if you bought a new car recently, you’d have received another $4500 as part of the cash for clunkers trade in program, also courtesy of Uncle Sam.
  4. Delinquency rates are home loans are still extremely high
  5. Oh, and did I mention there’s no jobs?

Seems to me that without all the Gov’t stimulus, GDP would be so far into the toilet, we’d be seeing the D-word instead of “The Great Recession”.

Despite this, the stock market is going no where but up. I don’t know about you, but I don’t see ANY part of this picture that says “sustainable economic recovery”.

What’s the point of this rant?

Do you honestly believe that decades of excess, speculation, and outright fiscal lunacy can honestly be undone in a year or two?

I don’t know about you, but I don’t buy it. If I was a betting man, I’d say how about a “snowball’s chance in hell?”

So what should you do if you are an investor? Same advice as yesterday:

  1. cut your living expenses to the bone
  2. raise as much cash as possible
  3. do as many seller financed purchases as possible (as seller financed deals are also the easiest to renegotiate if needed)
  4. focus on flipping short sales, as opposed to fixing & flipping REOs, because it can be done without the need to tie up any capital

Your comments are always welcome,
TRD

Staying in the Shadows for Years to Come

On September 2nd the current foreclosure moratorium was to be lifted, according to my friend at the Bank of America.  Interestingly enough, the BofA was already exempt from the moratorium, and despite that, they’ve been loathed to add to their REO inventory, much less sell any of it.

In the circles I swim in, the conventional wisdom is that the shadow inventory (houses that are now REO but not yet for sale on the MLS) has to be released to the market at some point, and, when that happens, prices are going to continue to decline at least another 10%. A basic understanding of economics would suggest that 10% is not unreasonable, give the sheer (rumored) amount of the shadow inventory.

I have to admit though, that I’m now starting to think “at some point” will never happen, and that the banks are going to continue to parcel out the REO inventory in dribs and drabs for years to come.

Why?

There are a number of reasons that I’m starting to change my view on this.

Leading the charge is the fact that bank CEOs like to keep their banks in business, and to do that, they need to have money to lend. If they start selling REOs in volume, prices must decline and the net result of that will be that the bank’s assets will take a huge hit. As banks capital requirements are set by the regulators, a drop in assets will mean that more reserve capital must be set aside and that will, in turn, reduce the amount of capital available for lending.

With nothing to lend, a bank is essentially out of business, and a CEO is out of a job.

Next on my list is the fact that it is probably cheaper to let a family stay in a house they aren’t making payments on, than it is to hire lawyers, go through the foreclosure process, and then be saddled with all the costs associated with insuring and maintaining an empty house. Essentially, the delinquent homeowner is a caretaker that doesn’t charge the bank anything to look after the house.

In other words, why foreclose on a ton of houses all at once, and then be saddled with massive costs, when you can just let John and Mary live there (even if they aren’t making payments), until such time as you are ready to foreclose and sell in an orderly fashion?

Given the number of REOs on the banks books now, plus the number of borrowers that go into default on a daily basis, it could take years and years to slowly bleed off all that inventory.

The net result of a controlled redistribution of these assets is that they don’t get sold at fire sale prices and the underlying market for 1st time buyers remains very healthy – even if it is artificially so. Stability, be it contrived or real, has the same net effect, increased consumer confidence – a much needed ingredient if there is to be an end to the recession.

Your comments are always welcome,
TRD

10 big banks get OK to repay $68 billion in bailout money

JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are among the banks able to return the taxpayer funds. But it’s unclear if all 10 can do so now.

By Jim Puzzanghera

9:28 AM PDT, June 9, 2009

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration today announced it has given approval to 10 of the nation’s largest banks to repay $68 billion in government bailout money they have received to stabilize the financial system.


FOR THE RECORD: An earlier version of the headline on this article indicated that Bank of America and Wells Fargo were among the 10 banks given approval to repay government bailout money. Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. have submitted acceptable capital-raising plans, according to the Federal Reserve, but they are not among the 10 that received approval to repay bailout money.


“These repayments are an encouraging sign of financial repair, but we still have work to do,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said.

The Treasury Department, which administers the $700 billion bailout fund, did not name the banks. And it was unclear whether all the banks that have received approval to repay the money will actually do so.

But all 10 made their own announcements after Geithner’s statement.

Banks that received permission to repay the government capital are American Express Co., BB&T Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust Corp., State Street Corp. and U.S. Bancorp.

Several large financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have been pushing to repay the bailout money, which many of them said they were forced to take last fall by then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Large banks have chafed at executive compensation restrictions and other strings attached to the bailout money.

More than 600 banks have received about $199 billion from the bailout fund, which was initially called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. The Obama administration has changed the name to the Capital Purchase Program. The government received preferred stock in the institutions and warrants to purchase additional stock as part of the investments. The banks also were required to pay dividends on the preferred stock, and so far the government has received $4.5 billion in such payments.

Several smaller banks already have been allowed to repay their bailout money, totaling about $1.9 billion so far. But the Obama administration has been concerned about the implications of some of the nation’s largest banks repaying their bailout money, fearing that a rush to return the money could prevent the banks from having enough capital to continue lending.

The Treasury Department, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve and other bank regulators, conducted stress tests of the 19 largest banks this spring to see if they had enough capital to withstand worse-than-expected economic conditions. Nine of the banks passed the test, but 10 others were required to raise a total of $75 billion in capital as a cushion against potential future losses on bad mortgage loans and other investments if the recession worsened.

Those banks have been working on plans to raise the money in recent weeks and faced a Monday deadline to submit those plans to the government. The Federal Reserve said Monday that the 10 banks, including Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., had submitted acceptable capital-raising plans.

The Treasury Department said today that banks that repay their bailout money will have the right to repurchase the government warrants “at fair market value.”

The Financial Services Roundtable, which represents large banks, said the announcement by Geithner today showed the industry is strong.

“The financial services industry is well-capitalized,” said Steve Bartlett, the group’s president. “This is a positive sign for the industry and the economy.”

Switch to our mobile site