Coming Soon: More Foreclosures

More than 1.7 million homeowners were verging on foreclosure this fall, making it likely that these houses will soon end up on the market one way or the other, driving down overall housing values.

“We’re going to be dealing with high levels of distressed (sales) in the marketplace for at least a couple of years,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist of researcher First American CoreLogic, which has been studying the problem.

Some real estate practitioners say they fear that this onslaught is coming.

“We’ve been in recovery mode for most of the year. How many foreclosures do they have to dump on the market to affect that? I don’t know,” says Deborah Farmer, owner of StarLight Realty in Tampa, Fla. “Any house priced under $225,000 will be affected by a large increase in foreclosures in this market.”

Source: Associated Press, Alan Zibel (12/17/2009)

A Peferct Foreclosure Storm

I came across the following quote in my morning reading this morning, and, as I believe it to be absolutely true, thought I’d be remiss if I didn’t pass it along.

Oh, and one other item I thought I’d share was some points that were covered in a conversation I had recently with a Realtor in San Diego who does a lot of business in Rancho Santa Fe (where are the very, very expensive homes are). He told me that he is starting to see more and more million-dollar-plus price drops in that market as well as more and more of these “wealthy” owners are coming to him asking how much they could get if they sold their house in today’s market.

In other words, the super-rich appear to be starting to feel the pinch just like everybody else.

——

“If the economy is improving, do we really have millions more
foreclosures coming? According to the U.S. Treasury, the answer is
yes. In written testimony to Congress, Assistant Secretary for
Financial Institutions, Michael Barr said that, regardless of the
success of mortgage modification efforts, we should still expect
millions more foreclosures.

Mr. Barr’s testimony is certainly not welcome news for those
anticipating a significant recovery in the housing market. In fact, it
is an indication that significant recovery is still years away.

And there are other factors that confirm the fragile state of both the
economy and the housing market. Recent reports have indicated that
there are almost 3 million active, interest-only loans with a total
value of almost $1 trillion, with loans of about $500 billion set to
reset within the next 30 months. Then we have a large group of Option
Arm mortgages set to recast during the next 2 years. These loans have
a combined value of more than $125 billion.

The rising number of bankruptcies, up 36% in the second quarter over
last year, with wealthy families filing at double that rate, creates a
“perfect storm” of disastrous consequences for the housing market.
With the likely prospect of millions more foreclosures coming, home
prices and home sales will remain depressed until the market can
achieve stabilization. And achieving stabilization will be a slow and
painful process.”

—–

Your comments are always welcome,
TRD

7 lenders escape state foreclosure moratorium

Bank of America, Citigroup and EMC Mortgage Corp. are among seven companies that have received permanent exemptions to California’s 90-day foreclosure moratorium, which began last week.

More than 20 other lenders and loan servicers, including Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, have received a temporary exemption while they wait to learn if it will become permanent.

Here’s what Mathew Padilla wrote previously on the law:

The California Foreclosure Prevention Act, or Assembly Bill X2 7, which Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed in February, is meant to push banks and loan servicers into lowering mortgage payments of homeowners in financial trouble. It reflects a similar federal plan.

Several companies have already applied for exemptions, said Mark Leyes, a spokesman for the state’s Department of Corporations. The department must grant or refuse an exemption within 30 days, during which companies need not comply with the moratorium. The law impacts loans made from 2003 to 2007.

A lender or servicer gets an exemption by demonstrating it already has a loan modification program in place, including lowering owner payments to a target of 38 percent of their income going to housing. Methods of choice are lowering the loan’s interest rate or extending its term to 40 years.

The bill, however, seems to lack teeth. The 38 percent debt-to-income ratio is merely a target.

And the bill says it does not require a servicer to violate contracts for “investor-owned loans.” The most troubled loans are generally those investment banks packaged and sold, and if the servicing contract says foreclosure is preferable to a loan modification, nothing in the law stops foreclosure.

Exemptions are granted by the three agencies that regulate companies that make, service or broker loans.

  • See the California Department of Corporations exemptions list HERE.
  • The Department of Real Estate list HERE.
  • And Department of Financial Institutions list HERE.

Finally, the Sacramento Bee has a good story on the issue HERE.

Home Prices Drop at a Slower Rate

S&P/Case-Shiller index down 18.1% year over year, but monthly drop narrows to 0.6% in April.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com
Last Updated: June 30, 2009: 10:25 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Home prices continued to tumble in April, falling 18.1% from a year earlier — but the change from March narrowed sharply, indicating that housing markets may be starting to turn.

The 20-city slice of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index recorded a drop of 0.6% from March to April, compared with a 2.2% drop in the prior month. The index has declined every month since July 2006.

“The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Thirteen of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March.”

Not only that but every metro area save one — Charlotte, N.C. — reported improvement in their monthly return compared with March.

“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions,” said Blitzer. “We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.”

Blitzer pointed to some factors that may be lifting the housing markets. For one thing, the stock market bottomed out in March and started a strong recovery. The S&P 500 has gained about 37% since then. Consumer confidence has also improved, making house hunters more likely to pull the trigger on deals.

Not all optimistic: The housing market picture is still very murky, according to Pat Newport, a real estate analyst with IHS Global Insight. He’s not convinced that the improved April report means much more than a seasonal variation in housing markets. Spring is, historically, a strong time of year for housing markets.

He said that not only are home prices still falling but other metrics, such as unemployment and foreclosure rates, are worsening as well.

“Foreclosures are still driving markets, and the rate of foreclosure is still going up,” Newport said. “I think that’s going to continue”

Job losses will all but guarantee that will happen, according to Newport, especially since price declines have put so many homeowners underwater, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. By some calculations as many as 20% of homeowners are underwater.

When people are underwater and they’re losing their jobs or some of their income, that’s bound to result in more foreclosures, more vacant homes for sale and more downward pressure on prices.

Huge declines from peaks: Phoenix, where homes have lost 35.3% of their value over the past 12 months, was the worst performing market over that period. Las Vegas prices plunged 32.2% and San Francisco dropped 28%.

Denver prices fell the least over the last 12 months, down 4.9%, followed by Dallas at 5% and Boston at 7.7%.

Prices in Dallas rose 1.7% between March and April, the largest increase among the 20 cities. Las Vegas prices dropped 3.5%, the biggest decline — which was still narrower than the month before.

Dallas also has suffered the smallest decline from the top of its market, off just 9.6% from its peak in June 2007. The rest of the cities have all suffered double-digit percentage drops from their peaks, with the worst being Phoenix, down 54.1% from June 2006.

Single-Family Home Construction Up Again in April, CBIA Announces

Homebuilders hope for a second round of the homebuyer tax credit

May 26, 2009

SACRAMENTO – Single-family home construction in California showed a significant increase in April when compared to March and was the largest monthly total since October of 2008, which the California Building Industry Association said provided more evidence that the homebuyer tax credit enacted in the beginning of March is helping to clear out inventory and generate new-home construction.

According to statistics compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board, 2,265 single-family permits were pulled throughout California during the month of April, down 33 percent when compared to the same month a year ago but up 21 percent when compared to March. It was the largest monthly total since October of 2008 when 2,352 permits were pulled.

Robert Rivinius, CBIA’s President and CEO, said the month-to-month increase in single-family production indicates that builders are clearing out inventory due to the tax credit and are starting to build again, but that the tax credit funds need to be replenished in order to continue the positive momentum.

“The tax credit enacted in March is having the desired effect of stimulating home sales and clearing out inventory, which is helping to generate new construction and put people back to work in the process,” Rivinius said. “Our elected officials gave our industry a much-needed shot in the arm for which we are very grateful.

“However, almost two-thirds of the allocated funds for the credit have been applied for since the program was enacted just 12 weeks ago, which is why we are pushing for a second round of the tax credit by adding another $200 million to the fund in hopes of keeping the positive momentum going while generating construction and much-needed tax revenues for the state and local government.”

Rivinius cited the most recent report from the Franchise Tax Board which says applications for the tax credit total $65.7 million as of May 20.

In April, a total of 3,127 permits were pulled throughout the state, down 52 percent when compared to April 2008, but down just 12 percent when compared to March. Multifamily permits totaled 862, down 72 percent from the same month a year ago, and down 48 percent from March.

Ben Bartolotto, Research Director for the Construction Industry Research Board, attributed the overall month-to-month decline to the volatile multifamily sector which saw an unexpected large increase in March.

CIRB is forecasting permits will be pulled for just 40,000 total units in 2009, which would be by far the lowest total on record, down 38 percent from the record-low 64,962 units produced in 2008. The forecast calls for 16,600 multifamily units, the lowest since 1993 when 14,755 permits were issued, and 23,400 single-family units, which would be the lowest on record.

“It’s clear that the tax credit is performing as expected, and if it is extended we believe housing starts will continue to strengthen in the months ahead. And that would be great news for state and local government revenues and for the economy as a whole,” Rivinius said. “Without the extension of the credit, we might not even be able to build what CIRB is forecasting.”

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